David Suter

Working class people, the world over, are paying the price of Trump’s Iranian adventure. More precisely we are paying for Netanyahu’s war, as it looks, in part at least, as though Trump’s ego was goaded into the conflict by the Israeli leader, as well as by US imperialist geo-strategic and economic interests in the region. Anthony Albanese was quick to support the US and Israeli attacks on Iran. The Labor Party has surrendered any pretence of independent foreign policy and is a puppet of the US war machine. Socialists oppose completely the US and Israeli war against Iran. This is not to support the murderous Iranian regime. Only independent action by the working class offers any way out of the worsening crisis engulfing the middle east.

Albanese the ‘reluctant’ Howard

The early statement issued by the Albanese Labor government attempted to make conditional their support on aims to “prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon”. Trump’s claims only a short while ago to have destroyed Iran’s nuclear capability seem to be long forgotten. The distinction made by government ministers of defensive as against offensive deployments are semantic. Australian troops are onboard US warships, including those that have launched attacks against Iranian targets. Australian troops are in the region to defend against Iranian attacks. The Pine Gap intelligence facility is a key component of the US war machine. The Albanese Labor government is at war with Iran. 

It should be noted that this support for another US imperialist war in the middle east comes from a Prime Minister who stood up in parliament and lambasted the previous right wing Howard government’s involvement in Iraq. At the time he stated in parliament, “Our government is about to redefine us in the eyes of the world as willing backers of US militarism… We are, with this decision, supporting a pre-emptive strike, which changes forever the way that international politics works.” Albanese, with his support for this war, now confirms that position.

Albanese was a founding member of the Parliamentary Friends of Palestine. This conviction politician seems to have misplaced his principles. This is the cost of power in Australia under capitalism. So terrified is Labor of Trump withdrawing from AUKUS  or unleashing the type of spray directed at British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Albanese that they swallow the pill and make the war their own. 

The Australian troops mobilised to the region are stationed in the UAE with whom Labor signed a ‘strategic partnership’ last year. In fact, the UAE is Australia’s largest arms market. Around 90% of the UAE population is made up of migrant workers who have few rights and face horrendous conditions for meagre pay. With friends like the UAE, criticism of Iran rings hollow.

 Another US imperialist war in the middle east

Trump’s aims for the war remain unclear, so many alternative versions have been offered. It appears he thought he could carry through a similar quick victory akin to events in Venezuela. The middle east is a key strategic area for western imperialism, particularly with respect to access to oil and gas. The entry of China to the region has raised the stakes. This is in the context of a US regime in economic decline while, conversely, China is on the rise, both economically and militarily. This is the reality of the new multi polar world and makes more strange and desperate Trump’s calls on China to intervene.

In the background of the conflict is the threat of escalation including nuclear weapons. While a full-blown nuclear war is unlikely at this stage, a more immediate threat is the use of smaller low grade nuclear weapons. These still have devastating consequences and risk further escalating the situation. It should be remembered that Israel has nuclear arms, despite this not being openly acknowledged.

While the response from the working class to the war has so far been muted, both in the middle east and in the western aggressor countries, the intervention of the working class can change the equation and force the hand of leaders from going down the path of increasing escalation. Iran has several significant trade unions in several sectors, however, they lack a strong independent political perspective and as yet have not intervened in a meaningful way.

Israel’s aims in the conflict are distinct from those of the US. Israeli attacks in Lebanon are much less reported but around a million people are already displaced. The Lebanese government is weak, and the conflict could cause the country to fall into disarray if not full-blown civil war. While for the US this represents an opportunity to weaken Chinese and Russian influence in the region. Israel likely would be much more comfortable with a frozen and ongoing conflict that maintains Iran in a weakened state, even if the price is social collapse and ongoing misery for the people of Iran. If the opportunity arises Israel may well seek to expand its territory, particularly access to resources including water on its northern border.

The bombing campaign in Iran is reminiscent of Putin’s adventure in Ukraine. In both instances Putin and now Trump thought a massive show of force would disintegrate the regime and result in a quick victory. Four years on and Russia remains stuck in a long and drawn-out conflict, though Moscow is making steady gains, albeit it at a huge cost. If Trump is unable to find a way out of Iran in the near term, there is the danger that the Iranian war could go the same way. While many reports suggest that Trump has no intention of putting troops on the ground, all plans go out the window on the day the war starts. The Trump regime is stacked to the rafters with Iran hawks and events create their own logic. If the Iranian regime remains in place, and the structure of the Iranian regime is not centralised in one figure, rather power is distributed through several bodies, and has proved more resilient than anticipated by the US, then Trump will struggle to frame a retreat as victory, even in a post truth world.

The US cannot defeat the Iranian regime with air attacks alone. Never in history have air attacks resulted in regime change. Iran is a heavily armed country, and many people have fighting experience. If the US does send in ground troops, it will become an extremely difficult, complex, costly, and prolonged conflict. Iran is a diverse society made up of many different ethnic groups and the conflict may result in the breakup of the country, potentially along ethnic lines as happened in Iraq, but on a much greater scale and with huge consequences for the region and world.

Economic shocks reach Australian shores 

The war is having a significant impact on the global economy. There are big shocks in global oil prices, with prices at record levels. The conflict is also causing significant impacts on stock markets due to the instability created.

The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, despite Trump’s initial claims to the counter. This strategic shipping corridor conveys 20% of global oil and LNG. Some countries are attempting to independently negotiate with Iran for passage for their tankers. Trump is increasingly desperate and has asked, in his typically belligerent style, other countries to send ships to escort tankers through the strait. The US’s allies are clearly nervous about intervening, even if limited to escorting ships, for fear of being dragged further into the conflict. Australia’s defence minister, Richard Marles, tied himself in knots when asked if Australia would send ships to the region, stating that no such request had been made. On the domestic front, Marles was keen to head off any concern that Australia’s involvement will further escalate, while at the same time he sought to appease any potential US backlash that Australia lacked enthusiasm in its support of the war.

The situation is having a massive impact on energy supply, including in Australia. Petrol prices have soared already by 30%, 40% for diesel, and particularly in regional areas. There are already instances of fuel shortages. Some forecasts indicating the price could double compared to those prior to the Iran conflict. In response the Albanese government has released fuel reserves and relaxed fuel standards to allow fuel produced in Australia, typically exported, to remain in the country and alleviate shortages. This will not be sufficient to keep a lid on prices or to prevent more widespread shortages, particularly as the conflict goes on. How different the situation would be if capitalism had adequately responded to the climate crisis and most people were now driving electric vehicles. 

Reports indicate that the oil price shocks will result in a 1% increase in inflation in Australia. This blows inflation out of the RBA’s target range. In response, the RBA has hiked rates for the second time this year, with further rises on the horizon. This will not address the root cause of inflation which is being driven by external factors. The RBA is using its so-called blunt instrument to put a brake on the Australian economy in the hope that job losses will counterbalance international inflationary pressures. The rate hikes will only hurt people with mortgages already feeling the pinch of several years of a cost-of-living crisis and now facing increased mortgage payments on top of fuel price increases. As pointed out by the Australia Institute, “It doesn’t matter how high Australian interest rates go, that is not going to open the Strait of Hormuz.”

The global price of oil and fertiliser will inflate the cost of everything in the Australian economy. Shamefully, and predictably, oil companies are already profiteering off the back of the war. Petrol prices in Australia jumped immediately following the US and Israeli intervention in Iran, as has occurred in previous conflicts. Particularly impacted will be food prices. The price gouging already seen from petrol companies can be expected from the supermarkets. The regulators are weak, limiting their interventions to discussions with industry and stepping up their data analysis. As anger over prices has risen, regulators have announced an investigation. However, these toothless tigers have limited powers and in the unlikely scenario that any prosecutions arise they will not touch the sides of the profits on offer. For the immoral captains of capital fines are just the cost of doing business.

While media reporting often claims that the RBA is ‘forced’ to put up rates to control inflation, there are alternatives. Missing from this equation are the only meaningful solutions; nationalisation and price controls. The federal government should intervene with price controls to prevent profiteering and limit the local impacts of inflation.

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation came out immediately following the attacks on Iran with a full throated endorsement of Trump and Netanyahu’s adventure. This defender of ‘Aussie battlers’ is much less vocal on the consequences of the war in terms of spiralling prices faced by working class Australian’s. One Nation present themselves as defenders of working Australian’s but in reality, they offer no answers.

Stop the war

The reaction in Australia is one of general opposition to the war. The memory of Iraq and Afghanistan provides a warning against entering another conflict in the middle east. While demonstrations have been organised, turnout has been limited. Several factors are at play here including some fatigue following the Gaza protests, more muted confidence due to the ineffectiveness of recent anti-war movements, and the reactionary nature of the Iranian regime dampens sympathies. On this front it is important to rebuild the anti-war movement, as we move into a period of increasing global instability and conflict.

The Iran war highlights the importance of Australia withdrawing from AUKUS. The deepening links between Australia and the US military only make Australia a target in the event of a conflict in the region. This alliance makes Australians less safe. The conflict also highlights the importance of the energy transition. Currently Australia is completely dependent on oil for the ongoing functioning of our economy. The mining sector runs almost exclusively on diesel. The transport sector likewise. The technology exists to electrify these industries. Not only is this required to address the climate crisis, but it would also insulate Australia from global economic shocks such as the current war on Iran.

Socialists have a proud history leading anti-war movements and we will be at the forefront once again. Join the fight for a better world!